Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
2035 66.2%En tête parmi 12 options
2035 66.2%Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète23 déc. 24, 16:30 UTC11 janv. 36, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a top US AI lab be nationalized by 2030?
Manifold MarketsAny American frontier AI lab (e.g. OpenAI, Anthropic) nationalized by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsAny leading Chinese AI lab (e.g. Deepseek, Moonshot, Zhipu) nationalized by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsSecond-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of December?
PolymarketThird-best AI Lab end of December?
PolymarketSecond-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of November?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves yes based on whether leading news networks refer to what happened as a nationalization or if that language is used by the government.
- Also resolves yes if the US government creates a project which becomes the leading AI lab in the country (at the time when it becomes the leading AI lab).
- Does not resolve yes if the relationship between the government and labs is only similar to that between the government and military contractors.