Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 74.6%
Prévisionnistes
33
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète4 mars 24, 14:10 UTC1 janv. 28, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
In 2027, will AI be able to generate a good "X-ing the technical interview" aphyr.com post?
Manifold MarketsBy 2028, can AI perform translation as good as a human who is fluent in both languages but unskilled at translation?
Manifold MarketsWill any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiRègles
Towards the end of 2027, I will do a poll asking if the top tax AI are as good as an average accountant in preparing tax return for a typical household.
- Resolves Yes if over 50% of the respondant think that the top tax AI are as good as an average accountant in preparing tax return for a typical household
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-3.0pt56.3%
- ChatGPT-3.3pt24.3%
- Grok+2.4pt7.8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 102,1 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,4 M €
KALSHIWhat will Spotify CEO say during Goldman Sachs Communacopia?
- Anthropic / Claude+62.0pt99%
- Video+55.0pt99%
- Royalty / Licensing+63.0pt99%
+14 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt62.5%
- 2026-10.0pt25%
- September 30, 2026-4.0pt12.5%
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 résultats de plus
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 4.1%+8.0pt99%
- Above 3.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.2%99%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 44,4 k €
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Anthropic market share this week
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- What will Macy's say during their next earnings call?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour By the end of 2027, will AI be able to do taxes as good as an average accountant? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 75% au 10 septembre 2026.
- Quand By the end of 2027, will AI be able to do taxes as good as an average accountant? sera-t-il résolu ?
- By the end of 2027, will AI be able to do taxes as good as an average accountant? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2028.
- Comment By the end of 2027, will AI be able to do taxes as good as an average accountant? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Towards the end of 2027, I will do a poll asking if the top tax AI are as good as an average accountant in preparing tax return for a typical household.