By 2030, will gene editing to cure serious genetic diseases be seen as generally uncontroversial?
Santé et médecineOne-Off4aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 79.3%
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47
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète23 déc. 22, 02:32 UTC31 déc. 30, 23:59 UTC
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KalshiRègles
Many people do not currently see gene editing to cure e.g., cancer, sickle-cell, or down syndrom as a clear moral good that humanity should be persuing.
- Will this change by 2030?
- Currently, I count ~40% of the most recent tweets containing the term "gene editing" as clearly negative; "gene therapy" is much, much worse.
- Twitter may not be the most approprite source by time of resolution, but I will try to find a broadly equivalnt source of popular opinion.
- When I look at statements of popular opinion, will at least 90% be positive or neutral? By default, I will treat technical statements of valid research as neutral, even if they show negative results or document risks.
- I will search for whatever term or terms are most commonly used in 2030.
