Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
2040-2044 24.2%En tête parmi 8 options
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+0.2 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète28 déc. 24, 02:09 UTC2 janv. 00, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will All Diseases and Aging be Effectively Cured by 2045?
Manifold MarketsWill All Diseases and Aging be Effectively Cured by 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill All Diseases and Aging be Effectively Cured by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill CDC cut the childhood vaccine schedule below 11 diseases in 2026?
KalshiEbola pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Current US mortality rates (CDC National Vital Statistics, 2022):
- Overall population: ~0.9% annually (900 per 100,000)
- Ranges from 0.1% (age 30-34) to over 4% (age 80+)
- Accidental deaths account for ~0.04% annually (40 per 100,000)
- If all diseases and aging were cured, mortality would drop to accident-only rates (0.04%), representing a 95%+ reduction from current levels.
- Resolution Criteria
Marchés ouverts
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.3pt97%
- Yes+0.3pt3%
- Volume total
- 15,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 35,6 k €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2 k €
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+4.0pt65%
- September41%
- June28%
- Volume total
- 83,5 k €
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 4000-1.0pt96%
- Above 6000-4.0pt58%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 864,2 k €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.5pt94%
- Yes-0.5pt6%
- Volume total
- 915,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 1,5 k €
KALSHIWhen will the FDA approve Intellia Therapeutics' lonvo-z?
- Before July 2027+67.0pt97%
- Before 202872%
- Before October 202752%
- Volume total
- 4,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- Cyclosporiasis cases reported in the US in 2026?
- FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
- What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
- When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- FDA decision: Saroglitazar by Zydus Therapeutics (in 2026)
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- FDA decision: Ifinatamab Deruxtecan by Daiichi Sankyo (in 2026)
- Will the FDA approve CagriSema?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour In What Year Will All Diseases and Aging be Effectively Cured? ?
- Manifold Markets cote 2040-2044 à 24% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand In What Year Will All Diseases and Aging be Effectively Cured? sera-t-il résolu ?
- In What Year Will All Diseases and Aging be Effectively Cured? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2100.
- Comment In What Year Will All Diseases and Aging be Effectively Cured? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Current US mortality rates (CDC National Vital Statistics, 2022):