Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 67.1%
Prévisionnistes
28
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète28 déc. 24, 01:59 UTC1 janv. 50, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will All Diseases and Aging be Effectively Cured by 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill All Diseases and Aging be Effectively Cured by 2075?
Manifold MarketsWill All Diseases and Aging be Effectively Cured by 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill CDC cut the childhood vaccine schedule below 11 diseases in 2026?
KalshiWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
KalshiWhen will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
KalshiRègles
Explanation:
- Effectively Cure in this context means that you will not die from diseases or aging.
- Resolution Criteria:
- This market resolves as YES if CDC WONDER database shows both of the following for the United States before January 1, 2050:
- Total annual mortality rate drops to 0.05% or below
- This pattern holds across ALL age groups: between age 30 and age 84.
