Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 06:50 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète25 mai 24, 22:11 UTC2 janv. 35, 06:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a commercially available humanoid android that can perform basic household tasks by 2035?
Manifold MarketsBy 2028, AI can perform as well as the best human entrants in the Putnam competition.
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PolymarketAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketRègles
This is an equivalent question to https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/before-2035-will-there-exist-any-ai, except that it resolves based on my judgment instead of @IsaacKing's.
- I expect it to resolve the same, but this is not guaranteed and I will evaluate as independently as possible.
- I may copy clarifications from that market, but that is per my judgment.
- The AI is provided with a clear description of a task that a normal smart human could perform, in English.
- For example, "defeat the ender dragon using only wooden swords as your weapons", "build a creeper farm out of TNT", "create an 8-bit addition machine with redstone", "locate the nearest witch hut to coordinates [1024, 1024]", "fill that chest with eggs in less than 24 hours", etc. It must be capable of performing the task with similar efficiency and outcomes to a competent and knowledgeable human, in a large multiplayer server.
