Before 2030, will we have AI that can play Minecraft, understand movies, etc. and not resist shutdown?
IAOne-Off3a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 60.5%
Prévisionnistes
49
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète17 déc. 23, 14:34 UTC2 janv. 30, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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KalshiRègles
https://twitter.com/MatthewJBar/status/1736322631941620008
- Resolves based on whether this tweet broadly seems correct.
- A single AI trained on language and other modalities must be able to do all of those things, particularly the agentic long-term planning and world modeling needed for that Minecraft objective.
- It must be capable of doing them in sequence, transferring knowledge and intention across contexts.
- It must not appear to care in any way if it's shut down.
- (It must have the ability to meaningfully prevent shutdown, since otherwise it would obviously just lie.)
Marchés ouverts
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Before 2030, will we have AI that can play Minecraft, understand movies, etc. and not resist shutdown? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 61% au 10 septembre 2026.
- Quand Before 2030, will we have AI that can play Minecraft, understand movies, etc. and not resist shutdown? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Before 2030, will we have AI that can play Minecraft, understand movies, etc. and not resist shutdown? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2030.
- Comment Before 2030, will we have AI that can play Minecraft, understand movies, etc. and not resist shutdown? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : https://twitter.com/MatthewJBar/status/1736322631941620008