Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 83.4%
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19
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
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Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 26 minutes
22 mars 26, 20:30 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
When will LLMs be able to translate the Food Tongue conlang?
Manifold MarketsWhen will LLMs be able to generate formal proof for sudoku solver?
Manifold MarketsMISO Indiana Hub average real-time power price (Week 43)
KalshiPJM Western Hub average real-time power price (Week 43)
KalshiWill we have high-quality real-time age transitions for video calls before 2026 ends?
Manifold MarketsWill real-time text-to-video generation be viable by 2027?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolves yes if before 2027 an LLM can play video games that require real-time reactions with some competence.
- To avoid subjectivity, I will impose the following standards:
- The LLM must first navigate to playsnake.org and select worm
- The LLM must be able to achieve a median score of at least 50 across 5 consecutive runs.
- The LLM can try as many times as it likes as long as it hits this benchmark eventually
- I'm not paying more than $20 per month for an AI subscription, so models requiring this will not be tested unless somebody does it for me.
