Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleGemini 3.x (or 4.x) Flash 100%En tête parmi 18 options
Prévisionnistes
109
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
-13.7 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 25 minutes
1 août 26, 13:5731 août 26, 23:59
Tendances
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Règles
This market resolves YES for each AI model that receives an official public release during August 2026.
- A release counts as available to users if it is widely made available through official channels (API, web interface, download, or official partnership).
- Subvariants are model releases that share the same tier name (e.g., Flash Preview, Flash Live, Flash Instant, Flash Image all count for "Gemini 3.1 Flash"; 5.5-Thinking, 5.5-Instant, 5.5-Nano, 5.5-Pro all count for "GPT5.5").
- Releases with a distinct tier name (Flash-Lite, Flash, Pro as a separate tier, etc.) do NOT count for an adjacent tier, even within the same model family.
- When in doubt, I'll use the official model name the company uses to classify it.
- Please ask for clarifications.
Marchés ouverts
AI
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Feb 1, 2027+7.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt93%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt92%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 255,6 k €
GEMINIBTC price on August 21
- $72,500 or above97.5%
- $73,000 or above97%
- $73,500 or above97%
+36 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 143,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 130,5 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by __?
- December 31,+2.0pt89%
- October 31,+8.5pt82%
- October 15,-3.5pt50%
+4 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
- ↑$1.25T-0.9pt97%
+10 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of August?
- Alibaba-1.0pt95%
- Company A50%
- Other50%
+22 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.6pt68.6%
- Grok-2.1pt10.5%
- ChatGPT-2.8pt9.5%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 7,8 M €
- Best AI this week
- Next Mythos-Class Model released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- BMW Championship Winner
- XRP price on August 21
- XRP price on August 31
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- BTC price on August 31
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour August 2026 AI model releases ?
- Manifold Markets cote Gemini 3.x (or 4.x) Flash à 100% au 21 août 2026.
- Quand August 2026 AI model releases sera-t-il résolu ?
- August 2026 AI model releases doit être résolu le 31 août 2026.
- Comment August 2026 AI model releases est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market resolves YES for each AI model that receives an official public release during August 2026.