Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 95.3%
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète1 juil. 26, 12:28 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
At the end of 2026 will there be any European model that ranks higher than Mistral Medium 3.5 on arena.ai agent arena?
Manifold MarketsWhich models will GPT-6 Astra be higher than on arena.ai agent arena on the 12th September?
Manifold MarketsIf Fable 5.1 is listed on arena.ai on September 14th will it have a higher agent arena score than Fable 5?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves YES if there is a model released by a European company, listed on https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent, that ranks higher than at least one model that it currently listed on the leaderboard.
- The list of models on agent arena is currently:
- Claude Fable 5 (High)
- Claude Opus 4.8 (Thinking)
- GPT 5.5 (xHigh)
- Claude Opus 4.7
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 135,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7 k €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 325 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour At the end of 2026, will there be any European model that ranks higher than a model currently on LLM Agent Arena? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 95% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand At the end of 2026, will there be any European model that ranks higher than a model currently on LLM Agent Arena? sera-t-il résolu ?
- At the end of 2026, will there be any European model that ranks higher than a model currently on LLM Agent Arena? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment At the end of 2026, will there be any European model that ranks higher than a model currently on LLM Agent Arena? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves YES if there is a model released by a European company, listed on https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent, that ranks higher than at least one model that it currently listed on the leaderboard.