Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 80.5%
Prévisionnistes
82
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète15 janv. 24, 20:46 UTC1 janv. 28, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
In 2028, will LLMs still be able to get Gary Marcus to make egregious errors?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?
Manifold MarketsWill "LLMs are (still) mostly powered by imitative ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill LLMs still mostly preserve high ELO rankings of AI safety people at EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiRègles
A duplicate of @/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-gary-marcus-still-be-a, with the ban on "bizarre hacking like tricks" removed and clearer resolution criteria.
- This market resolves based on the behavior of all leading chatbots at the beginning of 2028.
- (Only ones that can actually be tested.)
- Resolves YES if people can find three extremely obvious questions, that an average human teenager could certainly answer, which any leading chatbot still fails at at least half the time when asked.
- Only the LLM portion of the chatbot is being tested here.
- Image-recognition and generation capabilities are not.