Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 55.6%
Prévisionnistes
1
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard18 juin 26, 15:10 UTC31 déc. 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will "LLMs are (still) mostly powered by imitative ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsAt the beginning of 2028, will LLMs still make egregious common-sensical errors?
Manifold Markets[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?
Manifold MarketsU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
PolymarketWill the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?
FutuurBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, as of December 31, 2028, at least half of the top 15 of all evaluated individuals by average Elo rating across the language models tracked on the Center for AI Safety (CAIS) AI Values Dashboard (https://values.safe.ai/) or the best replication of it are pro AI safety.
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Current top rated AI safety people include:
- Yoshua Bengio
- Stuart Russell
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 135,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7 k €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 325 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will LLMs still mostly preserve high ELO rankings of AI safety people at EOY 2028? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 56% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will LLMs still mostly preserve high ELO rankings of AI safety people at EOY 2028? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will LLMs still mostly preserve high ELO rankings of AI safety people at EOY 2028? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2028.
- Comment Will LLMs still mostly preserve high ELO rankings of AI safety people at EOY 2028? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria