As predicted by AI 2027, will AI surpass all living humans in coding ability by January 2027?
IAOne-Off2mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 88.1%
Prévisionnistes
59
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète8 avr. 25, 17:21 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Destiny surpass Hasan's number of YouTube subscribers within 2 years 8 months as predicted by Socialblade?
Manifold MarketsWill Israel be destroyed before 2040, as predicted by Khamenei?
Manifold MarketsWill (global average) sea level rise by more than 1.1 meters (as predicted by the IPCC) by 2100 ?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia cede territory to China by 2040 as predicted by Sarah Paine?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRègles
According to the AI Futures Project "AI 2027", AI coding will surpass any living person's coding abilities in January 2027.
- This will resolve as Yes on Feb 1 2027 if there are no demonstrable economically valuable coding tasks that a person can do that an AI cannot do.
- It will resolve as No if there are any economically valuable tasks that a human can do that AI cannot do.
- Evidence of an Economically Valuable Coding Task Will Include:
- - Any legitimate benchmark that is not saturated by AI, and contains any task a human can complete independently (such as SWEBench).
- - Any repeatable demonstration of such task