Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 92.6%
Prévisionnistes
9
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binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 18 heures
Obsolète3 juil. 24, 01:25 UTC2 sept. 40, 03:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Israel survive the date Khamenei predicted for its destruction?
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Manifold MarketsKhamenei # posts October 20 - October 27, 2026?
PolymarketMojtaba Khamenei public appearance by which date?
PolymarketRègles
In 2015 Khamenei predicted the "Zionist regime" will be gone in 25 years. https://x.com/khamenei_ir/status/641520641724780544
- In 2017 Iran started a countdown clock for August 5, 2040 if I have the numbers right: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-al-quds-day-protest-clock-president-hassan-rouhani-a7806056.html
- In case of a one-state solution, I would consider it to resolve YES, if that state doesn't have special provisions for Jewish people being able to immigrate (in which case I think it would no longer be Zionist).
- Any two-state solution would be NO.
- I consider the confederation model (https://www.2s1h.org/en) that still has a Jewish right of return for the Israel side to still be close enough to a two-state solution and would resolve NO.
- If the Iran regime moves the countdown clock further into the future, I would consider that to resolve NO (if I have to fix the date because I mis-added, or the 2017 article was wrong, that's fine though).
