Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 50%
Prévisionnistes
28
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète23 oct. 25, 11:45 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Yann LeCun's new AI startup reaches $100M+ valuation by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsIf Bitcoin reaches $120k before the end of 2025, will it reach $120k again in 2026?
Manifold MarketsTrump/US reaches a deal with Denmark to sell Greenland in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Beyonce release an album that reaches #1 on the "Billboard 200" in 2026?
FutuurLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution Criteria
- Resolves YES if Anthropic raises funds at a valuation >$1 trillion before OpenAI does.
- Close date will extend until one of the two companies raises funds at >$1 trillion.
Marchés ouverts
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 132,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 100,3 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 322,4 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.5pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Anthropic reaches $1T+ valuation before OpenAI? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 50% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Anthropic reaches $1T+ valuation before OpenAI? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Anthropic reaches $1T+ valuation before OpenAI? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Anthropic reaches $1T+ valuation before OpenAI? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution Criteria