Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
X = 5 100%En tête parmi 13 options
X = 5 100%Prévisionnistes
22
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète15 janv. 24, 16:54 UTC31 déc. 27, 18:29 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
AI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench without any assistance, by 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill an autonomous agent resolve 90% of tasks on SWE-bench by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Claude Sonnet 5 exceed 85% on SWE-bench verified?
Manifold MarketsWhen will SWE-bench be solved?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiRègles
Currently the SOTA has 4.80% resolves "with assistance":
- [image]For the unassisted leaderboard, please refer to the following market:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/firstuserhere/ai-resolves-at-least-x-on-swebench)Leaderboard live:
- (https://www.swebench.com/)