Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 73.6%
Prévisionnistes
21
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 minutes
30 avr. 24, 14:16 UTC31 déc. 26, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a G7 data authority fine a major AI agent provider over $100M for autonomous agent privacy violations
Manifold MarketsWill Claude Sonnet 5 exceed 85% on SWE-bench verified?
Manifold MarketsWhen will SWE-bench be solved?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves "Yes" if, at time of closure, there is an entry on the SWE-bench leaderboard (https://www.swebench.com/) with score greater or equal to 90%.
- Linked Questions:
- by 2025: https://manifold.markets/RationalHippy/will-an-autonomous-agent-resolve-90
- by 2026: https://manifold.markets/RationalHippy/will-an-autonomous-agent-resolve-90-46de94321b3f
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 135,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7 k €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 325 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will an autonomous agent resolve 90% of tasks on SWE-bench by 2027? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 74% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will an autonomous agent resolve 90% of tasks on SWE-bench by 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will an autonomous agent resolve 90% of tasks on SWE-bench by 2027? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will an autonomous agent resolve 90% of tasks on SWE-bench by 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves "Yes" if, at time of closure, there is an entry on the SWE-bench leaderboard (https://www.swebench.com/) with score greater or equal to 90%.