Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 58.5%
Prévisionnistes
7
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète19 mai 25, 12:14 UTC30 juin 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Australia loosen copyright laws to allow AI model training by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsAI model achieves superhuman ELO on Codeforces by June 1st 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the US government force another frontier AI model shutdown for allied users by mid-2027?
Manifold MarketsWill any frontier-class model training run be announced with >$1B total compute cost before 2026-12-31?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of November?
PolymarketRègles
Hinge #2 bet proposed in this post: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/45oxYwysFiqwfKCcN/untitled-draft-keg3
- "If the fastest models trained in mid‑2027 require one‑quarter the elapsed time of equally large runs eighteen months earlier without a node shrink below four nanometres, that will be strong evidence that software‑only acceleration is real, and is not highly bottlenecked by compute or real-world experiments slowing the AI researchers down."
- The other bets:
- #1: https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/nvidias-datacenter-revenue-and-bigt
- #3: https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/revenue-per-deployed-h100-exceeds-1
- #4: https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/g7-country-manages-three-years-of-6
