Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 62.7%
Prévisionnistes
51
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète29 mai 24, 00:00 UTC1 janv. 31, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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KalshiRègles
This is an attempt to forecast a realistic scenario where AI would be actually doing good (or at least interesting) philosophy by the end of 2030.
- Due to this aim, it is very specific.
- Gaston Bachelard was a French philosopher active in the first half of the 20th century.
- For the purposes of this market what matters is that he wrote five books on the psychoanalysis of the elements, i.e. fire, water, earth and air.
- Earth got two books for some reason.
- These books are a mix between a relatively detailed work of scholarship and psychoanalytical interpretation.
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 135,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7 k €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 325 k €
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+2 résultats de plus
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 63% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)? sera-t-il résolu ?
- AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2031.
- Comment AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This is an attempt to forecast a realistic scenario where AI would be actually doing good (or at least interesting) philosophy by the end of 2030.