Across, 2025 a majority of EA funding rounds will have public forecasting questions/prediction markets to bet on whether grants will be given or whether grant goals will be met.
One-OffSociety & Culture3moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 95.2%
Prévisionnistes
21
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète22 sept. 22, 18:44 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?
PolymarketWill a law restricting sports trades on prediction markets be enacted in 2026?
PredictItWho will be caught insider trading in prediction markets?
Manifold MarketsWill Prediction Markets be banned in the US before 31 December, 2026?
Manifold MarketsPope Leo XIV mentions prediction markets before 2027?
Manifold MarketsSports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling?
PolymarketRègles
The aim of this question is to predict whether things like the clearer thinking regranting tournament will become normal. ie using forecasting to aid grantmaking.
- Please help me improve the resolution criteria:
- For the year 2025, more than half of funding rounds giving away more than 100k in total will have forecasting questions or prediction markets on whether grants will be given or if grant goals will be met.
