Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleGoogle 100%En tête parmi 11 options
Prévisionnistes
59
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète27 févr. 26, 21:23 UTC31 déc. 26, 21:19 UTC
Tendances
100%
100%
100%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Insider Trading Result in Any Verified Harm Before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill there be 5+ "thought leaders" that became so due in part to trading success on prediction markets by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsLaw banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?
PolymarketWill a law restricting sports trades on prediction markets be enacted in 2026?
PredictItWill Prediction Markets be banned in the US before 31 December, 2026?
Manifold MarketsSports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling?
PolymarketRègles
A member of the listed organization must be penalized.
- The action must be a substantial action, including a fine, ban from a prediction market, termination, demotion, etc. A warning is not sufficient.
- If any other regulator such as the SEC or CFTC takes significant action, also resolves YES.
- If an exchange takes action, also resolves YES.
- If a law enforcement branch makes an legitimate indictment or arrest, resolves YES.
- The enforcement action must take place from market open to EOY 2026.
Marchés ouverts
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+1.0pt84.2%
- Yes-1.0pt15.8%
- Volume total
- 12,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 90,5 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-2.0pt51%
- Before Oct 1, 202749%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-6.0pt41%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 4,8 M €
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 202754%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 877 k €
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T-0.1pt19.8%
- $1.75T–$2.0T+0.5pt18.9%
- $1.5T–$1.75T+0.1pt17.9%
+5 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Mar 1, 202795%
- Before Feb 1, 202793%
- Before Apr 1, 202792%
+9 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 6,5 k €
- Conference to Win the National Championship
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
- Will Alabama cut its state grocery tax again?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
- Will Delaware raise its corporate franchise tax?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by September 30?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Who will be caught insider trading in prediction markets? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Google à 100% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Who will be caught insider trading in prediction markets? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Who will be caught insider trading in prediction markets? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Who will be caught insider trading in prediction markets? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : A member of the listed organization must be penalized.