Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 90.1%
Prévisionnistes
393
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 55 minutes
En retard27 mars 23, 05:41 UTC28 mars 28, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Apple announce a foldable phone that is not branded as an iPhone by the end of 2026?
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PolymarketRègles
Resolves YES, if 5 years from now, in hindsight, the consensus seems to be that the release of ChatGPT was as significant an event in signalling a coming sea change in technology and society as the release of the original iPhone.
- This will be greatly aided in resolution if there's a bunch of press articles saying as much, otherwise it will be based on my own subjective opinion, aided by whatever polls I can look at and whatever evidence is provided in the comments.
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
- 224,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5 k €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 344,9 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour 5 years from now, will ChatGPT be seen as an "iPhone moment?" ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 90% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand 5 years from now, will ChatGPT be seen as an "iPhone moment?" sera-t-il résolu ?
- 5 years from now, will ChatGPT be seen as an "iPhone moment?" doit être résolu le 28 mars 2028.
- Comment 5 years from now, will ChatGPT be seen as an "iPhone moment?" est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves YES, if 5 years from now, in hindsight, the consensus seems to be that the release of ChatGPT was as significant an event in signalling a coming sea change in technology and society as the release of the original iPhone.