Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 57.8%
Prévisionnistes
14
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 18 heures
Obsolète30 juil. 25, 23:27 UTC4 janv. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Règles
Any time between when they win their primary or are otherwise formally confirmed as their party's candidate, and when they take office.
- Arrest required; handcuffs, perp walk, and mug shot optional.
- Update 2025-07-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified what constitutes an 'arrest' for this market:
- An arrest does not require handcuffs, a perp walk, or a mug shot.
- An arrest confirmed via legal proceedings but without these public elements (e.g., Caroline Ellison's arrest) will count.
- Being handcuffed and taken away in a cop car is considered sufficient to count as an arrest.
Marchés ouverts
Crime & Justice
POLYMARKETTrump out as President before 2027?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Volume total
- 9,8 M €
- Volume 24h
- 16,5 k €
POLYMARKETLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
- 2027-2.0pt19%
- 2026+0.2pt5%
- Volume total
- 507,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 7,7 k €
KALSHIWho will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
- Anthony Fauci-2.0pt35%
- John Brennan+1.0pt34%
- Ilhan Omar+3.0pt18%
+38 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
- No70.3%
- Yes29.7%
- Volume total
- 358 k €
- Volume 24h
- 5,1 k €
POLYMARKETAndrew Tate released from custody by which date?
- December 31-3.5pt8%
- July 31-0.1pt0%
- August 31-0.6pt0%
KALSHIWho will be arrested in 2026?
- John Brennan+2.0pt26%
- Letitia James+8.9pt15%
- Anthony Fauci+1.0pt14%
+21 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Maduro Prison Time?
- Iran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?
- Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?
- Who will be arrested before 2027?
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
- Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?
- José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison?
- Lindsay Clancy sentenced to prison time in 2026?
- Lindsay Clancy convicted of manslaughter in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour 2026 Congressional candidate arrested? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 58% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand 2026 Congressional candidate arrested? sera-t-il résolu ?
- 2026 Congressional candidate arrested? doit être résolu le 4 janvier 2027.
- Comment 2026 Congressional candidate arrested? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Any time between when they win their primary or are otherwise formally confirmed as their party's candidate, and when they take office.