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Données au 1 sept. 2026, 03:00 UTC · politique pm-quality-3
Probabilité implicite actuelle
Karoline Leavitt 50%En tête parmi 5 options
Qualité du marché
22 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
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Liquidité
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Liquidité inconnueDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 minutes
26 août 26, 14:111 janv. 27, 14:59
Tendances
Règles
the named outcome · the named outcome · the named outcome · the named outcome · the named outcome.
If the named outcome leaves as Chief of Staff before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
the named outcome must have an actual departure date by vacating the role within the time period.
If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange.
- Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position.
- If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role.
For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
Outcome verified from ABC News Australia, Bloomberg News, CNBC, CNN, Deutsche Welle, Financial Times, Fox News, MSNBC, official government records and registries, person, Politico, Reuters, the Associated Press, the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is held, the New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, and BBC.
Comparaison des sources de prévision
3 plateformes cotent actuellement ce marché. La probabilité de référence pondérée par la liquidité de CoinRithm pour Karoline Leavitt est de 100%. Les cotations s'écartent d'environ 50 points de pourcentage entre les plateformes extrêmes. Les plateformes ne s'accordent pas sur l'issue en tête.
Référence CoinRithm Karoline Leavitt 100% · 3 plateformes · 50 pt d’ecart entre venues
- Également disponible sur Gemini — Who will leave the Trump Administration in 2026? · Lori Chavez-DeRemer 100%
- Également disponible sur Futuur — Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026? · Tulsi Gabbard 86%
- Également disponible sur Kalshi — Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? · Karoline Leavitt 100%
Marchés ouverts
US Politics
KALSHIMassachusetts Democratic Senate nominee?
- Ed Markey+1.1pt100%
- Seth Moulton-0.9pt0%
- Ayanna Pressley0%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 3,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 2,1 M €
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.3pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+0.2pt11%
- Jon Ossoff11%
+49 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-2.0pt82.2%
- Yes+2.0pt17.8%
- Volume total
- 55,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 505,9 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.2pt61%
- October 31+1.5pt39%
- September 30-1.0pt20%
+17 résultats de plus
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance+2.0pt45.5%
- Marco Rubio+3.0pt21.2%
- Ron DeSantis-0.3pt4%
+35 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance+2.8pt52%
- Marco Rubio+1.3pt18%
- Ron DeSantis+0.1pt3%
+39 résultats de plus
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? ?
- Limitless cote Karoline Leavitt à 50% au 2 septembre 2026.
- Quand Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Limitless règle ce marché comme suit : the named outcome · the named outcome · the named outcome · the named outcome · the named outcome. <p>If the named outcome leaves as Chief of Staff before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.</p><p><br></p><p>the named outcome must have an actual departure date by vacating the role within the time period.</p><p><br></p><p>If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange.
- Où Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? est-il également listé ?
- La même question est également listée sur Gemini, Futuur, Kalshi.