LimitlessVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesProbabilité implicite actuelle
Lula da Silva <5% 40.1%En tête parmi 11 optionsAjusté de la marge : les cotes brutes dépassaient 100 % au total et ont été normalisées.
Qualité du marché
23 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
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Liquidité
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Liquidité inconnueDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 minute
20 août 26, 18:364 oct. 26, 0:00
Tendances
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
Règles
Lula da Silva 5-10% · Lula da Silva 10-15% · Lula da Silva A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates.
- Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.
- If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Comparaison des sources de prévision
2 plateformes cotent actuellement ce marché. La probabilité de référence pondérée par la liquidité de CoinRithm pour Lula da Silva <5% est de 44%. Les plateformes ne s'accordent pas sur l'issue en tête.
Référence CoinRithm Lula da Silva <5% 44% · 2 plateformes · 0 pt d’ecart entre venues
- Également disponible sur Polymarket — Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory · Lula da Silva <5% 42%
- Également disponible sur Kalshi — Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory · Lula da Silva, 0-5% 47%
