KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesGrossièrement calibréProbabilité implicite actuelleLula da Silva, 5-10% 31.5%En tête parmi 11 options
Qualite du marche
40 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
120,4 €
Liquidité
4,4 k €
Liquidité moyenneAchat / Vente
21.0% / 30.0%
Spread
9.0 pt
Spread largeDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 22 minutes
23 avr. 26, 4:004 oct. 27, 14:00
Tendances
Fonds fictifs uniquement, aucun argent réelCeci n'est pas un conseil financier
Résultat choisi
Lula da Silva, 10-15%29%
Comparer les plateformes· Lula da Silva 5-10%
Classé par qualité du marché, puis liquidité et volume sur 24 h| Plateforme | Qualité | Probabilité | vs référence | Vol 24h | Liq | Fraîcheur | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketMeilleur global80% de correspondance · auto | Moyenne | 41% | 0pt | 1,3 k € | 41 k € | il y a 22 minutes | Ouvrir → |
| KalshiCette page | Faible | 34% | -7pt | 120,4 € | 4,4 k € | il y a 22 minutes |
Également disponible sur Polymarket
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
8.2 pts2mo
+6.5pt39.8%
-8.2pt25.2%
13.6%
+8 résultats de plus
53 • Qualité moyenneSpread largeLiquidité élevéeAmbiguïté élevée
Volume total261,6 k €
Volume 24h1,3 k €
POLYMARKETRègles
If the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election falls within 0% to 5%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The margin of victory is the vote share received by Lula da Silva minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Lula da Silva if Lula da Silva wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Lula da Silva loses.
- If Lula da Silva wins, the margin will be positive; if Lula da Silva loses, the margin will be negative; if Lula da Silva ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied.
- For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
- If Lula da Silva runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.
Les probabilités peuvent varier en raison de structures de marché, frais et bassins de participants différents.
Tendance du volume
$1372 juil.27j de données28 juil.
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If the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election falls within 0% to 5%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The margin of victory is the vote share received by Lula da Silva minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Lula da Silva if Lula da Silva wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Lula da Silva loses.
- If Lula da Silva wins, the margin will be positive; if Lula da Silva loses, the margin will be negative; if Lula da Silva ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied.
- For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
- If Lula da Silva runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.