Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
6.0% (24h)One-OffPolitiqueÉlectionLatin America1a
KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisProbabilité implicite actuelleLula da Silva, 5-10% 15%-6.0%En tête parmi 11 options
Qualite du marche
28 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
0,1 €
Liquidité
6,3 €
Faible liquiditéAchat / Vente
15.0% / 22.0%
Spread
46.7%
Spread largeDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 minutes
23 avr. 26, 4:004 oct. 27, 14:00
Tendances
0%
0%
Résultat choisi
Lula da Silva, 5-10%15%
Également disponible sur Polymarket
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
5.3%3mo
-2.5%34%
+3.5%32%
-2.0%11%
+8 résultats de plus
56 • Qualité moyenneSpread largeLiquidité élevéeAmbiguïté élevée
Volume total206,9 k €
Volume 24h155,2 €
POLYMARKETRègles
If the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election falls within 0% to 5%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
- For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Lula da Silva minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Lula da Silva if Lula da Silva wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Lula da Silva loses.
- For raw votes: the total votes received by Lula da Silva minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Lula da Silva if Lula da Silva wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Lula da Silva loses.
- For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Lula da Silva minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Lula da Silva wins, or the electoral votes received by Lula da Silva minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Lula da Silva does not.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.
Les probabilités peuvent varier en raison de structures de marché, frais et bassins de participants différents.
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If the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election falls within 0% to 5%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
- For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Lula da Silva minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Lula da Silva if Lula da Silva wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Lula da Silva loses.
- For raw votes: the total votes received by Lula da Silva minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Lula da Silva if Lula da Silva wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Lula da Silva loses.
- For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Lula da Silva minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Lula da Silva wins, or the electoral votes received by Lula da Silva minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Lula da Silva does not.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.