KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesAucune activité de trading
Données au 8 sept. 2026, 17:10 UTC · politique pm-quality-3
Probabilité implicite actuelle
Above $500 billion 0%En tête parmi 8 options
Qualité du marché
31 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
—
Liquidité inconnueÉcart
7.0 pt
Spread largeDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 minutes
26 août 26, 15:30 UTC4 févr. 28, 13:25 UTC
Tendances
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Règles
If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2027 is strictly the named outcome dollars, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The Underlying is the nominal goods and services balance on a balance-of-payments basis.
- It will not use the goods-only deficit, the advance goods report, the December monthly deficit, or inflation-adjusted trade data.
- Because the agencies generally report the balance as a negative number, the market will use the absolute size of the deficit.
- For example, an annual trade balance of −$800.1 billion constitutes a trade deficit of $800.1 billion.
- Resolution will use the first annual estimate published in the release covering December of 2027.
Marchés ouverts
Inflation
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+3.0pt52.5%
- No change-3.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 89,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 2,3 M €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above 0.0%99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 323,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 25,3 k €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 523 k €
- Volume 24h
- 22 k €
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+1.0pt54.3%
- September Meeting+3.0pt45.7%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETArgentina Monthly Inflation - August
- 1.5-1.7%-9.9pt68.8%
- 1.8-2.0%+8.2pt26%
- 1.2-1.4%-3.0pt3.1%
+5 résultats de plus
KALSHIWill the Citrini scenario happen?
- No83%
- Yes17%
- Volume total
- 22,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 4,4 k €
- August Inflation US - Annual
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Core PCE YoY - August 2026
- Will the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceed 2.4% in August 2026?
- Will the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceed 2.2% in August 2026?
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- Egg prices up in August?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour US trade deficit for 2027 ?
- Kalshi cote Above $500 billion à 0% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand US trade deficit for 2027 sera-t-il résolu ?
- US trade deficit for 2027 doit être résolu le 4 février 2028.
- Comment US trade deficit for 2027 est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2027 is strictly the named outcome dollars, then the market resolves to Yes.