What will the tariff rate on Chinese imports be on Jan 1, 2027?
Politique commercialeOne-OffChineEurope2mois
KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréMilieu du carnet sélectionné
10% or above · —
Chargement du carnet sélectionné…
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Prix enregistré
10% or above 95.5%En tête parmi 6 options
10% or above 95.5%Qualité du marché
36 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
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Intérêt ouvert
1,9 k $US
Intérêt ouvert faibleAchat / Vente
— / —
10% or aboveÉcart
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Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 minutes
23 juil. 26, 16:00 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Le graphique et les variations affichent les probabilités historiques enregistrées, pas le carnet sélectionné en direct.
Tendances
Ligne sélectionnée : milieu du carnet. Autres lignes : références enregistrées, éventuellement normalisées ; les variations sur 24h utilisent l’historique enregistré.
Conditions de la plateforme
Source : Kalshi
Ces conditions sont indicatives ; les opérations simulées de CoinRithm suivent leurs propres règles.
- Clôture anticipée:
- Oui
- Délai de règlement:
- 30m (indicatif)
Profondeur du marché · 10% or above
Chargement du carnet sélectionné…
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Actifs Sensibles au Macro
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
What will the tariff rate on Canadian imports be on Jan 1, 2027?
KalshiWhat will the tariff rate on Brazilian imports be on Jan 1, 2027?
KalshiWhat will the tariff rate on EU imports be on Jan 1, 2027?
KalshiWhat will the tariff rate on Mexican imports be on Jan 1, 2027?
KalshiUS tariffs on Chinese imports on January 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsU.S. tariff rate on China on December 31, 2026?
PolymarketRègles
If the general import tariff rate on imports from People's Republic of China into the United States on Jan 1, 2027 is at least 20%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:Fox NewsMSNBCThe Wall Street Journalthe United States CongressSemaforABCThe InformationCBSThe Washington PostAxiosCNNReutersthe Associated PressPoliticoThe New York Timesthe President of the United StatesWhite HouseBloomberg NewsNBC
- The market resolves based on the general import tariff rate that is actually in effect (i.e., being collected) on the specified date. This includes both universal tariffs on all U.S. imports and country-specific tariffs on the specified country. Only tariffs that are currently active and being collected count - announced but not implemented tariffs, paused tariffs, or suspended tariffs do not qualify. The tariff rate refers to the general baseline rate, not including product-specific duties or exemptions. If multiple general rates apply, the general import tariff rate is the sum of all applicable general rates in effect. Examples (for date = Jan 1, 2026): India: 25% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14326) + 25% Russian Oil Penalty (EO 14329) = 50% China: 10% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14358) + 10% Fentanyl Duty (EO 14357) = 20% European Union: 15% Reciprocal Tariff "Floor" (EO 14326) Falkland Islands: 10% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14326)
Règles de chaque résultat
- 10% or above
- If the general import tariff rate on imports from People's Republic of China into the United States on Jan 1, 2027 is at least 10%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 15% or above
- If the general import tariff rate on imports from People's Republic of China into the United States on Jan 1, 2027 is at least 15%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 20% or above
- If the general import tariff rate on imports from People's Republic of China into the United States on Jan 1, 2027 is at least 20%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 30% or above
- If the general import tariff rate on imports from People's Republic of China into the United States on Jan 1, 2027 is at least 30%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 50% or above
- If the general import tariff rate on imports from People's Republic of China into the United States on Jan 1, 2027 is at least 50%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 100% or above
- If the general import tariff rate on imports from People's Republic of China into the United States on Jan 1, 2027 is at least 100%, then the market resolves to Yes.