KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesGrossièrement calibréProbabilité implicite actuelleBefore Jan 20, 2029 59%+10.0pt
Qualite du marche
47 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
182,9 €
Liquidité
6,8 k €
Liquidité moyenneAchat / Vente
52.0% / 58.0%
Spread
6.0 pt
Spread largeDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 minutes
18 déc. 24, 15:0020 janv. 29, 15:00
Tendances
Fonds fictifs uniquement, aucun argent réelCeci n'est pas un conseil financier
Résultat choisi
Before Jan 20, 202959%
Tendance du volume
$2083 juil.21j de données28 juil.
Marchés Associés
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
199,1 k €Oui: 22%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
139 k €December 31: 85%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
102,8 k €August 31: 54%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
How much will the US acquire Greenland for?
2,6 k €$0 / No Acquisition: 83%KALSHI
KALSHI
How many federal judges will be confirmed in Jul 2026?
2,2 k €At least 8: 17%KALSHI
KALSHI
Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?
1,1 k €China invades Taiwan first: 11.9%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSActifs dans ces sujets
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If the United States explicitly and formally recognizes Somaliland as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, the market resolves to Yes.
- This could include: opening a U.S. embassy with Somaliland, accepting an ambassador from Somaliland, including the entity as an independent country in U.S.
- Department of State country lists, or signing a formal treaty, bilateral agreement, or communique that explicitly identifies Somaliland as an independent and sovereign state.
- Merely acknowledging a governing authority exists, without recognizing its authority, is insufficient to resolve the market to Yes.
- Establishing a consulate or liaison office without the formal status and language of recognition does not qualify.
- Trade offices, cultural centers, or other non-embassy missions are insufficient.