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Données au 22 sept. 2026, 02:35 UTC · politique pm-quality-3
Probabilité implicite actuelle
Before 2027 22%
Qualité du marché
47 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
10,8 k €
Liquidité moyenneAchat / Vente
2.0% / 7.0%
Écart
5.0 pt
Spread modéréDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 minutes
11 mai 26, 16:00 UTC1 janv. 27, 15:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?
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Manifold MarketsRègles
If the United States explicitly and formally recognizes the Republic of China as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:White House
- This could include: opening a U.S. embassy with the Republic of China, accepting an ambassador from the Republic of China, including the entity as an independent country in U.S. Department of State country lists, or signing a formal treaty, bilateral agreement, or communique that explicitly identifies the Republic of China as an independent and sovereign state.
- Merely acknowledging a governing authority exists, without recognizing its authority, is insufficient to resolve the market to Yes.
- Establishing a consulate or liaison office without the formal status and language of recognition does not qualify.
- Trade offices, cultural centers, or other non-embassy missions are insufficient.
- Participation alongside the entity in international conferences, humanitarian aid missions, or multilateral forums does not in itself constitute recognition as a sovereign state.
Marchés ouverts
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
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- No change+2.0pt46.1%
- 25 bps decrease1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 8 M €
- Volume 24h
- 821,9 k €
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt21%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+0.3pt13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep+1.0pt60.6%
- D-House, R-Senate+1.0pt30.3%
- Republicans sweep-0.3pt8.1%
+1 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.4pt4%
- September 30+0.3pt1%
- April 300%
+3 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- September 30+4.6pt100%
- October 31+3.3pt100%
- December 31+2.7pt100%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHILos Angeles Mayor winner?
- Karen Bass-7.0pt56%
- Nithya Raman+6.0pt44%
- Volume total
- 28,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 537,2 k €
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- Ohio Senate winner?
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- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- US-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Trump recognize Taiwan? ?
- Kalshi cote Before 2027 à 22% au 22 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Trump recognize Taiwan? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Trump recognize Taiwan? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will Trump recognize Taiwan? est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If the United States explicitly and formally recognizes the Republic of China as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, the market resolves to Yes.