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Données au 27 juil. 2026, 17:10 UTC · politique pm-quality-3
Probabilité implicite actuelleBefore Jan 20, 2029 13%
Qualite du marche
49 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
0 €
Liquidité
11,2 k €
Liquidité moyenneAchat / Vente
4.0% / 5.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Spread serréDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 minutes
11 mai 26, 16:001 janv. 27, 15:00
Tendances
Fonds fictifs uniquement, aucun argent réelCeci n'est pas un conseil financier
Résultat choisi
Before 20275%
Tendance du volume
$873 juil.19j de données24 juil.
Marchés Associés
Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?
1,1 k €China invades Taiwan first: 11.9%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSIf Trump is elected in 2024, will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
113,4 €Oui: 32.1%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
US x China Military clash before 2027?
97,5 €Oui: 4%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?
0 €Oui: 14%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
693,7 €Oui: 75%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETIf Donald Trump wins in 2024, will a War between China and the USA have occured by the end of his 2025 term?
454,3 €Oui: 6.6%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSActifs dans ces sujets
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If the United States explicitly and formally recognizes the Republic of China as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, the market resolves to Yes.
- This could include: opening a U.S. embassy with the Republic of China, accepting an ambassador from the Republic of China, including the entity as an independent country in U.S.
- Department of State country lists, or signing a formal treaty, bilateral agreement, or communique that explicitly identifies the Republic of China as an independent and sovereign state.
- Merely acknowledging a governing authority exists, without recognizing its authority, is insufficient to resolve the market to Yes.
- Establishing a consulate or liaison office without the formal status and language of recognition does not qualify.
- Trade offices, cultural centers, or other non-embassy missions are insufficient.