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  • Accueil
  • MarchésMarchés de Prédiction
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  1. Marchés de Prédiction
  2. US Politics
  3. Will Trump recognize Taiwan?
Will Trump recognize Taiwan?

Will Trump recognize Taiwan?

One-OffUS PoliticsChinaGéopolitique2a
KalshiKalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de frais
Probabilité implicite actuelle
Before Jan 20, 2029
Before Jan 20, 2029 18%
Qualite du marche

28 / 100

Faible qualité
Volume 24h

1 €

Liquidité

86,7 €

Faible liquidité
Achat / Vente

13.0% / 18.0%

Spread

38.5%

Spread large
Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 1 minute

18 déc. 24, 15:0020 janv. 29, 15:00

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Résultat choisi

Before Jan 20, 202918%

Règles

If the United States explicitly and formally recognizes the Republic of China as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • This could include: opening a U.S. embassy with the Republic of China, accepting an ambassador from the Republic of China, including the entity as an independent country in U.S.
  • Department of State country lists, or signing a formal treaty, bilateral agreement, or communique that explicitly identifies the Republic of China as an independent and sovereign state.
  • Merely acknowledging a governing authority exists, without recognizing its authority, is insufficient to resolve the market to Yes.
  • Establishing a consulate or liaison office without the formal status and language of recognition does not qualify.
  • Trade offices, cultural centers, or other non-embassy missions are insufficient.

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China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

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China coup attempt before 2027?

China coup attempt before 2027?

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Which country will build the first Military Space Station?

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Lai Ching-te departure announced?

Lai Ching-te departure announced?

0,7 €
Before July 1, 2026: 1%KalshiKALSHI
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How many times will the Trump admin and/or NVIDIA flip-flop on giving NVIDIA chips to China before 2028? (fun)

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10-15: 31.4%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS

Actifs dans ces sujets

BitcoinBTC$62,638.15+2.21%EthereumETH$1,649.96+1.51%SolanaSOL$65.11+1.46%DogecoinDOGE$0.0849+1.50%XRPXRP$1.12+0.13%BNBBNB$595.17+1.48%

Actualités Associées

Bitcoin price tumbles after Trump orders military response to IranCrypto NewsFormer Epstein assistant Lesley Groff appears before House panel Crypto NewsTrump adviser Patrick Witt backs sweeping crypto tax billsCrypto NewsPentagon adds Alibaba, Baidu and BYD to China’s military-linked list Crypto NewsU.S. judge blocks Trump’s $100,000 H-1B visa fee after state challengeCrypto NewsTrump walks out of interview after clash over election fraud claims Crypto News

Règles

If the United States explicitly and formally recognizes the Republic of China as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • This could include: opening a U.S. embassy with the Republic of China, accepting an ambassador from the Republic of China, including the entity as an independent country in U.S.
  • Department of State country lists, or signing a formal treaty, bilateral agreement, or communique that explicitly identifies the Republic of China as an independent and sovereign state.
  • Merely acknowledging a governing authority exists, without recognizing its authority, is insufficient to resolve the market to Yes.
  • Establishing a consulate or liaison office without the formal status and language of recognition does not qualify.
  • Trade offices, cultural centers, or other non-embassy missions are insufficient.