KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Before January 1, 2028 27%En tête parmi 3 options
Before January 1, 2028 27%Qualité du marché
41 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Intérêt ouvert
7,3 k €
Intérêt ouvert moyenÉcart
6.8 pt
Spread largeDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 21 minutes
7 janv. 26, 00:00 UTC1 janv. 27, 15:00 UTC
Tendances
Conditions de la plateforme
Source : Kalshi
Ces conditions sont indicatives ; les opérations simulées de CoinRithm suivent leurs propres règles.
- Clôture anticipée:
- Oui
- Délai de règlement:
- 30m (indicatif)
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Lai Ching-te visit the United States?
KalshiLai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?
PolymarketLai Ching-te impeached by which date?
PolymarketLai Ching-te visits US by which date?
PolymarketWill Lai Ching-te (of the DPP party in Taiwan) still be alive by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketRègles
If Lai Ching-te leaves office before January 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:The New York Timesthe Associated PressReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABCCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBC
- An announcement that Lai Ching-te will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. If Lai Ching-te leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death). If a last traded price is not available or is not logically consistent, or if the Exchange determines at its sole discretion that the last traded prices prior to death do not represent a fair settlement value, the Outcome Review Committee will be responsible for making a binding determination of fair allocation.
Règles de chaque résultat
- Before January 1, 2028
- If Lai Ching-te leaves office before January 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before July 1, 2027
- If Lai Ching-te leaves office before July 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before January 1, 2027
- If Lai Ching-te leaves office before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.