KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Oui 74%+5.0pt
Qualité du marché
≤49 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
177,3 €
Liquidité
1 k €
Faible liquiditéAchat / Vente
73.0% / 78.0%
Écart
5.0 pt
Spread largeDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 minutes
4 sept. 26, 16:03 UTC11 sept. 26, 13:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
What will be the generic ballot on election day 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a polling error of at least 5% in the 2026 generic ballot polling?
Manifold Markets2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
KalshiPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketBrazil Presidential Election
PolymarketRègles
If the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) is above 5.6% at 10:00 AM ET on Sep 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:VoteHub
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
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- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
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- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Generic Ballot: Democrats Up/Down (9/4-9/11) ?
- Kalshi cote Yes à 74% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Generic Ballot: Democrats Up/Down (9/4-9/11) sera-t-il résolu ?
- Generic Ballot: Democrats Up/Down (9/4-9/11) doit être résolu le 11 septembre 2026.
- Comment Generic Ballot: Democrats Up/Down (9/4-9/11) est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) is above 5.6% at 10:00 AM ET on Sep 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.