Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 76.8%
Prévisionnistes
5
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète7 avr. 26, 16:49 UTC3 nov. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will there be a significant polling error at the 2026 US midterm elections?
Manifold MarketsGeneric Ballot: Democrats Up/Down (9/4-9/11)
KalshiWhat will be the generic ballot on election day 2026?
Manifold Markets2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
KalshiPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRègles
I will average the FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin and RealClearPolitics averages and compare them against the national generic congressional vote, excluding districts where one candidate was running unopposed.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 606,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 721 k €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+1.0pt20%
- Tucker Carlson+0.1pt3%
+39 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-1.0pt55.5%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.5pt42.6%
- Renan Santos-0.1pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16.5%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15.5%
- Gavin Newsom13.6%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 411,2 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+4.0pt73%
- New People (NL)-2.5pt23%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.5pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-1.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+1.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Putin out as President of Russia by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will there be a polling error of at least 5% in the 2026 generic ballot polling? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 77% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will there be a polling error of at least 5% in the 2026 generic ballot polling? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will there be a polling error of at least 5% in the 2026 generic ballot polling? doit être résolu le 3 novembre 2026.
- Comment Will there be a polling error of at least 5% in the 2026 generic ballot polling? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : I will average the FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin and RealClearPolitics averages and compare them against the national generic congressional vote, excluding districts where one candidate was running unopposed.