Will there be a significant polling error at the 2026 US midterm elections?
PolitiqueOne-OffUS PoliticsÉlection2moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 57%
Prévisionnistes
19
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète19 nov. 25, 13:48 UTC30 nov. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve YES if there is a difference of three percentage points or more between the final 'RCP Average' polling margin and the national popular vote margin at the 2026 elections for the United States House of Representatives.
- Clarifications
- The 'RCP Average' polling margin will be supplied by the 2026 Generic Congressional Vote page on the RealClearPolling website (see the 'spread' column).
- The national popular vote margin is the margin (in percentage points) between the Democratic and Republican parties.
- A difference of 'three percentage points or more' must not be a difference that merely rounds up to three percentage points.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will there be a significant polling error at the 2026 US midterm elections? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 57% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will there be a significant polling error at the 2026 US midterm elections? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will there be a significant polling error at the 2026 US midterm elections? doit être résolu le 30 novembre 2026.
- Comment Will there be a significant polling error at the 2026 US midterm elections? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria