Will there be a significant polling error at the 2026 US midterm elections?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlectionÉlections de mi-mandat américaines 20261mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 59.9%
Prévisionnistes
24
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 18 minutes
19 nov. 25, 13:48 UTC30 nov. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will there be a polling error of at least 5% in the 2026 generic ballot polling?
Manifold MarketsWhat will happen in the 2026 US Midterm Elections (add your own!)
Manifold MarketsWill the 2026 US Midterm Elections generally be considered free and fair?
Manifold MarketsWill the Democrats gain 38+ seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 US midterm elections?
Manifold MarketsWill Mike Johnson remain Speaker of the House through the 2026 US Midterm elections?
FutuurWill the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve YES if there is a difference of three percentage points or more between the final 'RCP Average' polling margin and the national popular vote margin at the 2026 elections for the United States House of Representatives.
- Clarifications
- The 'RCP Average' polling margin will be supplied by the 2026 Generic Congressional Vote page on the RealClearPolling website (see the 'spread' column).
- The national popular vote margin is the margin (in percentage points) between the Democratic and Republican parties.
- A difference of 'three percentage points or more' must not be a difference that merely rounds up to three percentage points.
