KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Non 98%
Qualité du marché
45 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
377,6 €
Faible liquiditéAchat / Vente
0.3% / 5.5%
Écart
5.2 pt
Spread largeDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 minutes
3 déc. 25, 23:30 UTC1 janv. 27, 15:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
US abolishes debt ceiling before 2029?
Manifold MarketsUS defaults on debt by 2027?
PolymarketBrazil’s public debt-GDP ratio at the end of 2026
FutuurWhat will US federal government debt as a percent of GDP be in 2035?
Manifold MarketsWhat will US federal government debt as a percent of GDP be in 2033?
Manifold MarketsFed Decision in September?
PolymarketRègles
If a bill becomes law that abolishes the debt ceiling (rather than just temporarily suspending or increasing it) before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:Library of Congress
Marchés ouverts
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+3.0pt52%
- No change-3.0pt46.1%
- 25 bps decrease+0.1pt1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 89,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 2,3 M €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above 0.0%99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 323,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 25,3 k €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 523 k €
- Volume 24h
- 22 k €
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes+1.0pt2%
- Volume total
- 611,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 12,8 k €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP86%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 10,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 10,5 k €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No94%
- Yes+1.0pt6%
- Volume total
- 2,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 7,7 k €
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Mexico unemployment rate in August
- 2026: Trump's dream year?
- Unemployment in September
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the debt ceiling be abolished? ?
- Kalshi cote No à 98% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the debt ceiling be abolished? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the debt ceiling be abolished? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will the debt ceiling be abolished? est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If a bill becomes law that abolishes the debt ceiling (rather than just temporarily suspending or increasing it) before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.