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  1. Marchés de Prédiction
  2. Bonds & Treasuries
  3. US defaults on debt by 2027?
US defaults on debt by 2027?

US defaults on debt by 2027?

0.8% (24h)One-OffBonds & TreasuriesMacro & EconomyUS PoliticsÉconomie6mo
PolymarketPolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de frais
Probabilité implicite actuelle
Oui
Oui 4%-0.0%
Qualite du marche

44 / 100

Faible qualité
Volume 24h

13,1 €

Liquidité

4,4 k €

Liquidité moyenne
Achat / Vente

1.6% / 6.4%

Spread

300.0%

Spread large
Variation 7j

-1.3%

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 1 minute

5 nov. 25, 19:5031 déc. 26, 0:00

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Résultat choisi

Yes4%

KalshiÉgalement disponible sur Kalshi

US defaults before 2027?

US defaults before 2027?

6mo
Oui
Oui
5%
Non
Non
95%
24 • Faible qualitéSpread largeFaible liquiditéMarché peu profond
Volume total8,8 €
Volume 24h0 €
KalshiKALSHI

Règles

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
  • The resolution source will be official information from the U.S.
  • Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.

Les probabilités peuvent varier en raison de structures de marché, frais et bassins de participants différents.

Marchés Associés

U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP below 5% for FY2026?

U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP below 5% for FY2026?

0,5 €
Oui: 13%KalshiKALSHI
Manifold Markets

Will May 2026 U.S. personal income rise at least 0.4% month-over-month?

34,5 €
Oui: 31.2%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

30 year interest rates greater than 7.5% by EOY 2028

0 €
Oui: 30%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Will South Korea issue at least ₩15T in KTBs in July 2026?

Will South Korea issue at least ₩15T in KTBs in July 2026?

0 €
Oui: 54.3%LimitlessLIMITLESS
Manifold Markets

If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?

7,6 k €
Oui: 14.6%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS

Actifs dans ces sujets

BitcoinBTC$65,849.21-0.33%EthereumETH$1,793.82+1.75%SolanaSOL$73.73+0.05%DogecoinDOGE$0.0876+0.47%XRPXRP$1.22-0.53%BNBBNB$607.92-0.97%

Actualités Associées

Crypto PAC has $12M stake in Senate primary runoff as Alabama voters head to pollsCointelegraph2028 Race Shifts as JD Vance Leads Polymarket Odds despite Market VolatilityBlockchain.NewsTrump's Presidency in Doubt as June 30 Deadline LoomsBlockchain.NewsLeading Polymarket bets pin GOP-leaning odds on Newsom in 2028 raceBlockchain.NewsFormer Epstein assistant Lesley Groff appears before House panel Crypto NewsTrump adviser Patrick Witt backs sweeping crypto tax billsCrypto News

Règles

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
  • The resolution source will be official information from the U.S.
  • Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.