US defaults on debt by 2027?
1.6 pts (24h)One-OffBonds & TreasuriesMacro & EconomyUS PoliticsÉconomie3mois
PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Non 97%-1.6pt
Qualité du marché
67 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
812 €
Liquidité
2,1 k €
Faible liquiditéAchat / Vente
2.7% / 3.8%
Écart
1.1 pt
Spread serréCommentaires
0
Variation 7j
+1.9 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 minutes
5 nov. 25, 19:50 UTC31 déc. 26, 00:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Règles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
- The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Comparaison des sources de prévision
Marchés ouverts
Bonds & TreasuriesPOLYMARKETHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
- 4.0%+0.3pt100%
- 3.9%-0.7pt9%
- 3.8%+3.0pt8%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 211,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 7,3 k €
POLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
- 4.82%-27.0pt50%
- 4.85%-25.5pt41%
- 4.94%-10.0pt30%
+6 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- 4.5%+11.2pt100%
- 4.6%+4.9pt100%
- 4.4%-1.5pt100%
+7 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?
- Below 4.76%+5.5pt79%
- Below 4.73%+15.5pt76%
- Below 4.70%+9.0pt59%
+6 résultats de plus
KALSHI10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- 4.66% or above99%
- 4.68% or above99%
- 4.7% or above99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 2,1 k €
KALSHI30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- 5.19% or above99%
- 5.17% or above99%
- 5.11% or above99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 2 k €
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- Will NU sell $250M in bonds for the Big Red Rebuild?
- 5Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- Bank of Canada rate on December 31, 2026
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in September?
- How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?
- How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
- Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour US defaults on debt by 2027? ?
- Polymarket cote No à 97% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand US defaults on debt by 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- US defaults on debt by 2027? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment US defaults on debt by 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Polymarket règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Où US defaults on debt by 2027? est-il également listé ?
- La même question est également listée sur Kalshi.