KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréMilieu du carnet sélectionné
Before Jan 1, 2029 · —
Chargement du carnet sélectionné…
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Prix enregistré
Before Jan 1, 2029 31%En tête parmi 3 options
Before Jan 1, 2029 31%Qualité du marché
31 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
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Intérêt ouvert
1,4 k $US
Intérêt ouvert faibleAchat / Vente
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Before Jan 1, 2029Écart
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Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 55 minutes
En retard23 sept. 26, 23:30 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Le graphique et les variations affichent les probabilités historiques enregistrées, pas le carnet sélectionné en direct.
Tendances
Ligne sélectionnée : milieu du carnet. Autres lignes : références enregistrées, éventuellement normalisées ; les variations sur 24h utilisent l’historique enregistré.
Conditions de la plateforme
Source : Kalshi
Ces conditions sont indicatives ; les opérations simulées de CoinRithm suivent leurs propres règles.
- Clôture anticipée:
- Oui
- Délai de règlement:
- 30m (indicatif)
Profondeur du marché · Before Jan 1, 2029
Chargement du carnet sélectionné…
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Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If Trump or other Republican wins in 2024, how many cabinet level departments will be eliminated before the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill a major 2028 Democratic presidential candidate propose creating a Cabinet-level department to deal with AI risk?
Manifold MarketsWhen will an OpenAI model achieve a High risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]
Manifold MarketsWhen will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]
Manifold MarketsU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
PolymarketWhat will happen during Trump's second term?
Manifold MarketsRègles
If a person formally serves in a Cabinet-level position within the U.S. federal government whose primary and distinct policy portfolio is artificial intelligence after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Only reporting from President Donald J. Trump or the White House qualifies for this market, including Trump’s official Truth Social account and the White House Cabinet page. Reports that merely reference publications from before Issuance do not qualify unless the new publication explicitly reaffirms the truth of the topic as of its publication date. Republishing another source’s content qualifies only if hosted on the outlet’s official platform with that outlet identified as publisher. A position is considered Cabinet-level if the President or White House formally designates its holder as a member of the Cabinet or as holding Cabinet rank. Merely attending Cabinet meetings, advising the President, holding the title “Assistant to the President,” or leading an office within the Executive Office of the President does not by itself qualify. The person must have assumed the position; an announced intention to appoint someone does not qualify. Artificial intelligence must be a primary and distinct responsibility of the position. Officials whose responsibilities include AI only as part of a broader portfolio covering science, technology, economic policy, national security, or another policy area do not qualify. The Cabinet-level designation must belong to the AI position itself: an official who holds Cabinet rank through another office and is additionally assigned AI responsibilities qualifies only if the White House formally designates that AI role as Cabinet-level. A Secretary of Artificial Intelligence, a Cabinet-rank AI czar, or the head of a newly created Cabinet-level department or agency primarily responsible for artificial intelligence would qualify.
Règles de chaque résultat
- Before Jan 1, 2029
- If a person formally serves in a Cabinet-level position within the U.S. federal government whose primary and distinct policy portfolio is artificial intelligence after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2028
- If a person formally serves in a Cabinet-level position within the U.S. federal government whose primary and distinct policy portfolio is artificial intelligence after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If a person formally serves in a Cabinet-level position within the U.S. federal government whose primary and distinct policy portfolio is artificial intelligence after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.