Will a major 2028 Democratic presidential candidate propose creating a Cabinet-level department to deal with AI risk?
PolitiqueOne-OffUS PoliticsÉlection2aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 75.7%
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète17 juil. 26, 20:58 UTC7 nov. 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If Trump or other Republican wins in 2024, how many cabinet level departments will be eliminated before the end of 2028?
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Manifold MarketsDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Polymarket2028 Democratic presidential nominee
Kalshi2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee
Robinhood (Rothera)Règles
A "major" candidate is defined as being invited to participate in the televised debates, and/or receiving over 10% in at least 5 consecutive polls from different pollsters, anytime between now and the end of the 2028 Democratic primaries.
- If a major candidate proposes an existing federal agency should be tasked with developing an AI x-risk framework, that doesn't count.
- If a major candidate proposes the creation of an entire new Cabinet-level department to deal with the impact of AI on the economy or environment, but doesn't specifically mention x-risk, that doesn't count either.
- What counts is if a Democratic presidential candidate, treated by the media & public as having a serious chance of winning the nomination, says something along the lines of "AI might kill us all, and we should create a new Cabinet-level department tasked with figuring out a response", even if it's an off-the-cuff statement at a debate or town hall that they don't ever follow up on.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will a major 2028 Democratic presidential candidate propose creating a Cabinet-level department to deal with AI risk? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 76% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will a major 2028 Democratic presidential candidate propose creating a Cabinet-level department to deal with AI risk? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will a major 2028 Democratic presidential candidate propose creating a Cabinet-level department to deal with AI risk? doit être résolu le 7 novembre 2028.
- Comment Will a major 2028 Democratic presidential candidate propose creating a Cabinet-level department to deal with AI risk? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : A "major" candidate is defined as being invited to participate in the televised debates, and/or receiving over 10% in at least 5 consecutive polls from different pollsters, anytime between now and the end of the 2028 Democratic primaries.