Will a major 2028 Democratic presidential candidate propose creating a Cabinet-level department to deal with AI risk?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlection2a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 75.7%
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9
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète17 juil. 26, 20:58 UTC7 nov. 28, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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Kalshi2028 Democratic presidential nominee
KalshiRègles
A "major" candidate is defined as being invited to participate in the televised debates, and/or receiving over 10% in at least 5 consecutive polls from different pollsters, anytime between now and the end of the 2028 Democratic primaries.
- If a major candidate proposes an existing federal agency should be tasked with developing an AI x-risk framework, that doesn't count.
- If a major candidate proposes the creation of an entire new Cabinet-level department to deal with the impact of AI on the economy or environment, but doesn't specifically mention x-risk, that doesn't count either.
- What counts is if a Democratic presidential candidate, treated by the media & public as having a serious chance of winning the nomination, says something along the lines of "AI might kill us all, and we should create a new Cabinet-level department tasked with figuring out a response", even if it's an off-the-cuff statement at a debate or town hall that they don't ever follow up on.
