When will the US cut the 50% aluminum tariff on Canada?
FedOne-OffPolitique commercialePolitiquePolitique américaine2mois
KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesAucune activité de trading
Données au 24 oct. 2026, 16:00 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Milieu du carnet sélectionné
Before Jan 1, 2027 · —
Chargement du carnet sélectionné…
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Prix enregistréBefore Jan 1, 2027 50%En tête parmi 3 options
Qualité du marché
24 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
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Intérêt ouvert
0 $US
Intérêt ouvert inconnuAchat / Vente
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Before Jan 1, 2027Écart
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Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 minutes
1 oct. 26, 19:15 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Le graphique et les variations affichent les probabilités historiques enregistrées, pas le carnet sélectionné en direct.
Tendances
Ligne sélectionnée : milieu du carnet. Autres lignes : références enregistrées, éventuellement normalisées ; les variations sur 24h utilisent l’historique enregistré.
Conditions de la plateforme
Source : Kalshi
Ces conditions sont indicatives ; les opérations simulées de CoinRithm suivent leurs propres règles.
- Clôture anticipée:
- Oui
- Délai de règlement:
- 30m (indicatif)
Profondeur du marché · Before Jan 1, 2027
Chargement du carnet sélectionné…
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Actifs Sensibles au Macro
Règles
If the President signs a proclamation or executive order, or the Department of Commerce or U.S. Customs and Border Protection publishes a Federal Register notice, that reduces the generally applicable ad valorem Section 232 duty rate on aluminum articles (as defined in Proclamation 9704, as amended) that are products of Canada below 50% after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Only reporting from the White House or the Federal Register qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity. The market resolves on signing or publication of the qualifying instrument, not on its effective date. Counts as Yes: A flat rate cut on all or any defined subset of covered Canadian aluminum articles, including reinstatement of the August 2026 framework at 25% A tariff-rate quota under which in-quota Canadian aluminum enters below 50% A country exemption or North American metals arrangement that lowers or removes the duty on Canadian aluminum Does NOT count: The July 20, 2026 primary-aluminum onshoring incentive (approved firms importing at half the rate) or any expansion of it Commerce's investment-commitment program allowing individual Canadian or Mexican producers to apply for a 25% rate Individual importer exclusions under the Commerce exclusion process Changes to derivative aluminum products only, with the base article rate unchanged Changes to US-content deductions or smelt-and-cast rules that leave the headline rate at 50% Court rulings enjoining or vacating the tariff Framework agreements, announcements, or press statements without a signed legal instrument
Règles de chaque résultat
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If the President signs a proclamation or executive order, or the Department of Commerce or U.S. Customs and Border Protection publishes a Federal Register notice, that reduces the generally applicable ad valorem Section 232 duty rate on aluminum articles (as defined in Proclamation 9704, as amended) that are products of Canada below 50% after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Apr 1, 2027
- If the President signs a proclamation or executive order, or the Department of Commerce or U.S. Customs and Border Protection publishes a Federal Register notice, that reduces the generally applicable ad valorem Section 232 duty rate on aluminum articles (as defined in Proclamation 9704, as amended) that are products of Canada below 50% after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jul 1, 2027
- If the President signs a proclamation or executive order, or the Department of Commerce or U.S. Customs and Border Protection publishes a Federal Register notice, that reduces the generally applicable ad valorem Section 232 duty rate on aluminum articles (as defined in Proclamation 9704, as amended) that are products of Canada below 50% after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
