GeminiDonnées vérifiées limitéesProbabilité implicite actuelle
Gavin Newsom 17.5%En tête parmi 12 options
Qualite du marche
51 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
313,1 €
Liquidité
0 €
Faible liquiditéAchat / Vente
17.0% / 18.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Spread serréDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 minutes
19 févr. 26, 22:0210 nov. 28, 0:00
Fonds fictifs uniquement, aucun argent réelCeci n'est pas un conseil financier
Résultat choisi
Gavin Newsom18%
Comparer les plateformes· Gavin Newsom
Classé par qualité du marché, puis liquidité et volume sur 24 h| Plateforme | Qualité | Probabilité | vs référence | Vol 24h | Liq | Fraîcheur | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiMeilleur global83% de correspondance · auto | Élevée | 18% | 0pt | 1 M € | 96,5 M € | il y a 15 minutes | Ouvrir → |
 Polymarket88% de correspondance · auto | Élevée | 20% | +2pt | 322,9 k € | 64,6 M € | il y a 15 minutes | Ouvrir → |
| GeminiCette page | Moyenne | 18% | 0pt | 313,1 € | 0 € | il y a 15 minutes | |
 Myriad78% de correspondance · lié | Faible | 40% | +22pt | 0 € | 0 € | il y a 15 minutes | Ouvrir → |
 Smarkets64% de correspondance · lié | Faible | 18% | 0pt | 7,9 € | 0 € | il y a 15 minutes | Ouvrir → |
 Limitless94% de correspondance · auto | Faible | 20% | +2pt | 0 € | 0 € | il y a 15 minutes | Ouvrir → |
 Manifold Markets88% de correspondance · lié | — | 20% | +2pt | — | — | il y a 46 jours | Ouvrir → |
| Manifold Markets80% de correspondance · lié | — | 22% | +4pt | — | — | il y a 18 jours | Ouvrir → |
Également disponible sur Limitless
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
2a
19.7%
14.5%
9.3%
+3 résultats de plus
22 • Faible qualitéSpread inconnuFaible liquiditéMarché peu profond
Volume total10,7 k €
Volume 24h0 €
LIMITLESSÉgalement disponible sur Polymarket
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
2a
20.8%
-0.2pt16.7%
+0.7pt14.6%
+125 résultats de plus
89 • Haute qualitéSpread serréLiquidité élevée
Volume total1,1 Md €
Volume 24h322,9 k €
POLYMARKETÉgalement disponible sur Manifold Markets
Democratic Nominee for 2028 Presidential Election
1a
20%
10%
8%
+14 résultats de plus
Prévision communautaire21 prévisionnistesType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSÉgalement disponible sur Kalshi
2028 Democratic presidential nominee
0.7 pts2a
17.5%
-1.0pt14.6%
-2.0pt12.6%
+43 résultats de plus
89 • Haute qualitéSpread serréLiquidité élevée
Volume total142,6 M €
Volume 24h1 M €
KALSHIÉgalement disponible sur Manifold Markets
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
2a
-0.2pt34.3%
-0.1pt21.7%
-0.1pt11.8%
+5 résultats de plus
Prévision communautaire13 prévisionnistesType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSÉgalement disponible sur Myriad
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
24.1 pts73a
+0.2pt39.6%
-0.2pt10.1%
-0.1pt8.4%
+29 résultats de plus
30 • Faible qualitéSpread inconnuFaible liquiditéMarché peu profond
Volume total0 €
Volume 24h0 €
MYRIADÉgalement disponible sur Smarkets
Democratic Presidential Nominee
20%
17.9%
16.7%
+19 résultats de plus
22 • Faible qualitéSpread inconnuFaible liquiditéMarché peu profond
Volume total9,2 k €
Volume 24h7,9 €
SMARKETSRègles
2028 Democratic Nominee for President?
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if Gavin Newsom wins and formally accepts the 2028 Democratic Party nomination for U.S.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market will be official Democratic Party convention records, public confirmations by the Democratic Party, or news sources reporting on either.
- If the named individual wins the nomination but declines or does not accept it, this market will resolve to “No.” Any replacement of the Democratic nominee after acceptance will not affect the resolution of this market.
- This event is mutually exclusive.
- Read the full contract [terms & conditions]()
Les probabilités peuvent varier en raison de structures de marché, frais et bassins de participants différents.
Grosses transactions
$40.0k90.0%KALSHIKamala Harris — No-4 h
KALSHIKamala Harris — No-4 h$19.4k97.0%KALSHIMark Kelly — No-9 h
KALSHIMark Kelly — No-9 h$8.8k97.0%KALSHIMark Kelly — No-9 h
KALSHIMark Kelly — No-9 h$6.8k97.0%KALSHIMark Kelly — No-9 h
KALSHIMark Kelly — No-9 h$1.1k87.0%KALSHIJon Ossoff — No-9 h
KALSHIJon Ossoff — No-9 h$2.9k87.0%KALSHIJon Ossoff — No-9 h
KALSHIJon Ossoff — No-9 h$1.1k87.0%KALSHIJon Ossoff — No-9 h
KALSHIJon Ossoff — No-9 h$17.9k87.0%KALSHIJon Ossoff — No-9 h
KALSHIJon Ossoff — No-9 hMarchés Associés
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2028 Democratic Nominee for President?
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if Gavin Newsom wins and formally accepts the 2028 Democratic Party nomination for U.S.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market will be official Democratic Party convention records, public confirmations by the Democratic Party, or news sources reporting on either.
- If the named individual wins the nomination but declines or does not accept it, this market will resolve to “No.” Any replacement of the Democratic nominee after acceptance will not affect the resolution of this market.
- This event is mutually exclusive.
- Read the full contract [terms & conditions]()