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Données au 25 oct. 2026, 16:46 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Probabilité implicite actuelle
December 31, 2027 15%
December 31, 2027 15%Qualité du marché
26 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
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1,4 k €
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Mis à jour il y a 2 minutes
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
AI data center in space by December 31, 2027? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsWill Lumen Orbit have at least one functioning megawatt-scale data center in space by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill "Pretraining on Aligned AI Data Dramatically R..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a functional ≥100MW data center in space before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWhich states will enact data center moratoriums before 2028?
KalshiWhich data center ballot measures will pass?
KalshiRègles
This set of markets predicts when an orbital AI data center will be successfully launched into Earth's orbit.
- Each of the markets below covers one possible deadline; any number of these markets may resolve to "Yes" (a successful launch before an earlier deadline also counts toward all later deadlines).
- A market resolves to "Yes" if a qualifying orbital data center is successfully launched on or before the market's deadline. "Successfully launched" means a launch that places the qualifying orbital data center into Earth's orbit.
- An "orbital data center" is any spacecraft, satellite, or equivalent technology carrying computing infrastructure that is launched into Earth's orbit for the purpose of providing data-center, cloud-computing, or artificial intelligence computing services, and that includes at least 100 data-center-grade AI accelerators, GPUs, TPUs, or substantially equivalent compute processors (for example, NVIDIA H100 GPUs, Google TPUs, or any equivalent or successor chips).
- Demonstrators or prototype missions carrying fewer than 100 such accelerators do not qualify.
- Sub-orbital flights, hardware that fails to reach orbit, and ground-based facilities labeled "space data centers" do not qualify.
