Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 64.8%
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31
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 29 minutes
11 déc. 25, 17:40 UTC31 déc. 30, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will there be a functional Tesla bot in Mars by 2034?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a functional space-based solar power plant before 2045?
Manifold MarketsAI data center in space by which date?
PolymarketAI data center in space by December 31, 2027? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsAI data center in space by ?
FutuurWill Lumen Orbit have at least one functioning megawatt-scale data center in space by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolves YES if, before January 1, 2031, a space-based data center system meets ALL of:
- Location: In space (beyond the Kármán line, 100km altitude)
- Functional compute: Actively processing workloads with data transfer to/from Earth
- Coherent system: Either a single structure or a distributed constellation capable of training a standard distributed transformer model (e.g., data-parallel or tensor-parallel training with gradient synchronization).
- Compute capacity should be no less than a terrestrial 100MW data center running H100s could achieve.
- Scale and duration: ≥100MW average power draw by all equipment necessary for operation of the data center (including GPUs/TPUs/accelerators, CPUs, memory, networking, and cooling), sustained for ≥30 days continuous operation.
