PolymarketComprobar disponibilidadSin KYC2% de comisiónProbabilidad implícita actualSí 4%
Calidad del mercado
64 / 100
Calidad mediaVolumen 24h
2,7 mil €
Liquidez
45,1 mil €
Alta liquidezCompra / Venta
3.6% / 4.2%
Spread
16.7%
Spread amplioCambio 7d
+0.7%
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 7 minutos
17 dic 25, 22:4530 jun 26, 0:00
Tendencias
Resultado elegido
Yes4%
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
- Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
- The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative.
- Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.