PolymarketCerradoComprobar disponibilidadSin KYC2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableEste mercado se resolvió: Yes (100%)
Resuelto: 9 may 2026, 19:45
Resolución verificada por el proveedor
CoinRithm tiene evidencia del ganador y del momento de liquidación respaldada por el proveedor para este mercado.
Resultado Ganador
Yes
A 7 días
—
A 24 horas
32%
SorpresaProbabilidad implícita actualSí 100%+0.7pt
Calidad del mercado
49 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
27,1 M €
Liquidez
2,4 M €
Alta liquidezCompra / Venta
99.9% / 100.0%
Spread
0.1 pt
Spread estrechoCambio 7d
+90.5 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 79 días
Desactualizado13 ene 26, 19:2430 jun 26, 0:00
Cronología de Probabilidad
Yes100%
No0%
100%
0%
Este mercado ha cerrado. El trading simulado solo está disponible en mercados abiertos.
Comparar plataformas· Yes
Ordenado por calidad de mercado, luego liquidez y volumen de 24 h| Plataforma | Calidad | Probabilidad | vs. referencia | Vol 24h | Liq | Actualidad | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketEsta páginaMejor en general | Baja | 100% | — | 27,1 M € | 2,4 M € | hace 79 días | |
 Manifold Markets84% de coincidencia · auto | — | 3% | — | — | — | hace 28 días | Abrir → |
También disponible en Manifold Markets
Will Ukraine and Russia agree to a formal ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Cerrados
Resuelto
No (97.5%)
97.5%
2.5%
Pronóstico comunitario32 pronosticadoresTipo: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSReglas
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
- Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify.
- Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
- Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire.
- Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Las probabilidades pueden diferir debido a diferentes estructuras de mercado, comisiones y grupos de participantes.
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
- Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify.
- Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
- Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire.
- Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.