Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
Geopolítica
PolymarketCerradoComprobar disponibilidadSin KYC2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableEste mercado está cerrado y esperando una resolución confirmada.
Datos de resolución no verificados
Este resultado se infiere o no está respaldado por evidencia de liquidación de nivel proveedor.
Probabilidad implícita actualDecember 31 100%+2.0ptLíder entre 9 opciones
Calidad del mercado
49 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
20,2 M €
Liquidez
4,9 M €
Alta liquidezCompra / Venta
99.9% / 100.0%
Spread
0.1 pt
Spread estrechoCambio 7d
+9.7 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 93 días
Desactualizado28 feb 26, 14:4031 mar 26, 0:00
Cronología de Probabilidad
December 3199%
April 3096%
April 15100%
June 30100%
May 15100%
April 7100%
March 70%
March 150%
March 310%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Este mercado ha cerrado. El trading simulado solo está disponible en mercados abiertos.
Comparar plataformas· December 31
Ordenado por calidad de mercado, luego liquidez y volumen de 24 h| Plataforma | Calidad | Probabilidad | vs. referencia | Vol 24h | Liq | Actualidad | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketEsta páginaMejor en general | Baja | 100% | — | 20,2 M € | 4,9 M € | hace 93 días | |
 Manifold Markets80% de coincidencia · auto | — | 100% | — | — | — | hace 95 días | Abrir → |
También disponible en Manifold Markets
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by which date?
Cerrados
100%
100%
100%
+3 resultados más
Pronóstico comunitario34 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSReglas
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
- A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
- This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
- Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Las probabilidades pueden diferir debido a diferentes estructuras de mercado, comisiones y grupos de participantes.
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
- A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
- This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
- Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.