PolymarketComprobar disponibilidadSin KYC2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoProbabilidad implícita actual
8–9% 27.9%+0.5ptLíder entre 7 opcionesAjustado por margen: las cotizaciones brutas sumaban más del 100% y se normalizaron.
Calidad del mercado
≤49 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
—
Liquidez
28,2 mil €
Alta liquidezSpread
7.0 pt
Spread amplioComentarios
0
Cambio 7d
-3.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 14 minutos
2 sept 26, 18:26 UTC7 nov 26, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Condiciones de la plataforma
Fuente: Polymarket
Estas condiciones son informativas; las operaciones simuladas de CoinRithm siguen sus propias reglas.
- Orden mínima (participaciones):
- 5
- Incremento de precio:
- 1 puntos porcentuales
- Comisiones:
- Sí
Reglas
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
- This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
- This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
- For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
- In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
- In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
Comparación de fuentes de predicción
Mercados abiertos
US Politics
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep+2.0pt62.4%
- D-House, R-Senate-1.0pt28.7%
- Republicans sweep-0.5pt7.9%
+1 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 16,9 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,5 M €
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- 25 bps increase52.5%
- No change-1.0pt45.5%
- 25 bps decrease1%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+1.6pt65%
- October 31-4.0pt35%
- September 30-3.0pt8%
+17 resultados más
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31-0.2pt4%
- September 30-0.6pt0%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 61 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 540,5 mil €
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No+1.0pt86%
- Yes-1.0pt14%
- Volumen total
- 59,7 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 539,1 mil €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio-0.5pt15%
- Ron DeSantis3%
+39 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 617,7 M €
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- What will Trump say during his United Nations meetings?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Florida Governor winner?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- US-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Texas Senate winner?
- Will Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de GOP Black vote share??
- Polymarket cotiza 8–9% al 27.9% a fecha de 23 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve GOP Black vote share??
- Está previsto que GOP Black vote share? se resuelva el 7 de noviembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida GOP Black vote share??
- Polymarket liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
- ¿Dónde más está listado GOP Black vote share??
- La misma pregunta también está listada en Kalshi.