Pronóstico comunitario actual
Sí 74.7%
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15
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 6 horas
Desactualizado2 ago 23, 4:58 UTC1 ene 50, 2:59 UTC
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KalshiReglas
This question will resolve as Yes if a supernova has been observed by humanity in the Milky Way Galaxy at any time between August 2, 2023, to January 1, 2050.
- It will resolve as No otherwise.
- This time period refers to the date when the supernova has been observed, not when the supernova itself occurs (which may be many hundreds of years in the past)
- This market is an adaptation of this question on Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6827/a-supernova-in-the-milky-way-before-2050/
- (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/6827) ---------------------------
- Records of astronomical observations of supernovae date millennia, with the most recent supernova in the Milky Way unquestionably observed by the naked eye being SN1604, in 1604 CE.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 75% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050??
- Está previsto que Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2050.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This question will resolve as Yes if a supernova has been observed by humanity in the Milky Way Galaxy at any time between August 2, 2023, to January 1, 2050.