Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 62%
Pronosticadores
10
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 7 horas
Desactualizado3 ago 23, 10:19 UTC1 ene 00, 22:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will we have weak AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria)
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PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketReglas
Resolution criteria are the same as for the metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/
- [link preview]
Mercados abiertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Volumen total
- 241,3 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 128 mil €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 resultados más
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 349,4 mil €
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Most popular AI this week
- DeepSeek market share this week
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will we have strong AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria)?
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 62% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will we have strong AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria)?
- Está previsto que Will we have strong AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria) se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2100.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will we have strong AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria)?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria are the same as for the metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/