Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 89.4%
Pronosticadores
132
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 3 horas
Desactualizado24 mar 24, 16:07 UTC1 ene 41, 4:59 UTC
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Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Sam Altman leave OpenAI before Strong AGI is discovered by any organization?
Manifold MarketsWhich company or organization will be the first to develop strong AGI as defined by Manifold?
Manifold MarketsWill we have strong AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria)
Manifold MarketsSam Altman replaced as OpenAI CEO this year?
KalshiSam Altman still CEO of OpenAI through the end of 2026?
FutuurBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiReglas
To determine if AGI is achieved we will use a combination of other markets / mainstream news / Manifold poll if need be
Mercados abiertos
AI
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Volumen total
- 241,3 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 128 mil €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 resultados más
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 349,4 mil €
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Most popular AI this week
- DeepSeek market share this week
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Sam Altman be alive on the day strong AGI is publicly unveiled??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 89% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Sam Altman be alive on the day strong AGI is publicly unveiled??
- Está previsto que Will Sam Altman be alive on the day strong AGI is publicly unveiled? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2041.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Sam Altman be alive on the day strong AGI is publicly unveiled??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: To determine if AGI is achieved we will use a combination of other markets / mainstream news / Manifold poll if need be