Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 89.9%
Pronosticadores
10
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 2 horas
Desactualizado30 nov 23, 23:26 UTC1 nov 27, 22:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will we get AGI before August 15th 2027?
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Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWill Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiReglas
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being.
- Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can.
- It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.
- Resolves as true if such a system is created and publicly announced before August 1st 2027
- Here are markets with the same criteria:
- @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-july-2027
Mercados abiertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-2.0pt59.8%
- 2027-8.0pt30.8%
- 2026+1.0pt9.3%
- Volumen total
- 225,9 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 157 mil €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.0pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 2,4 M €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.5pt58.1%
- ChatGPT+1.4pt26.7%
- Grok-2.4pt5.7%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+6.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+7.0pt9%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 resultados más
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+6.0pt79.1%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.8%
- Gemini2.7%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 348,3 mil €
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- OpenAI market share this week
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- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will we get AGI before August 1st 2027??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 90% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will we get AGI before August 1st 2027??
- Está previsto que Will we get AGI before August 1st 2027? se resuelva el 1 de noviembre de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will we get AGI before August 1st 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being.